There are many things about shipping that can be under-estimated. First, more than 90% (and rising) of the world’s trade is still carried by ships. In global terms, airfreight is scarcely a factor.
Second, because publishers like Lloyd’s List (hence the name) were producing lists and locations of ships 200 years ago, it is assumed that maritime traffic is well-documented and, well, transparent.
But it’s not.
The lack of visibility has been underlined in recent years by the difficulty of identifying illegal activity at sea, whether in sanctions-busting trade, illegal immigation, smuggling or piracy. Until relatively recently, many ships engaged in illict activities could easily enter ports and pass through borders without detection. Even now, there are more than 1,000 undocumented and un-tracked oil and chemical tankers of the so-called “dark fleet” engaged in breaking oil and chemicals sanctions against Russia and others.
With the world’s population increasingly dependant on the ocean for food, energy production and global trade, there has been a clear need to fill the gaps in tracking systems that have sometimes seemed to miss up to 30% of all ships.
That was the spur for the former Israeli naval officers Ami Daniel and Matan Peled to launch their Windward company in 2010. Now CEO, Daniel said: “Maritime risks pose a major threat to many participants in the finance, energy, trade and security eco-systems. But, although the United Nations-mandated Automatic Identification System (AIS) for vessels created a vast wealth of shipping data which could be used to help assess that risk, there was no integrated solution that fused the multiple data sources…”
The CEO described the oceans as the Wild West and committed to bringing data sciences together with deep shipping expertise – “making sense of the data for the first time.”
Windward is a $40mn-revenue maritime intelligence company that leverages AI and advanced data analytics to provide insights and information about shipping activities, vessel movements, and maritime ‘events’. The subscription service enables clients to monitor and analyze shipping data for various purposes, including compliance, risk management, security and operational efficiency.
In backing that reveals the range of interests in making the oceans more “visible”, the startup raised a total of $17.3mn investment from the likes of General David Petraeus, former director of the CIA, Tom Glocer, former CEO of Thomson Reuters and Israeli venture capital firm Aleph. In 2021, the company IPOd on the London AIM market, raising net proceeds of £22.5mn. Its cash deposits at end-June 2024 were $13.8mn reflecting a slowing cash burn of $3.5mn for the half-year. The £140mn ($180mn) company’s chair is former BP chair Lord Browne. Aleph is now the largest shareholder with 15.7%. The co-founders own 13.9% of the company which has offices in the UK, Israel and the US.
Windward developed AI and data anlytical tools which initially helped government and security clients to police illegal fishing, homeland security and intelligence applications. It steadily expanded to create commercial applications including compliance and to provide data on shipping schedules and economics, increasingly for fund managers, bankers and traders who want to track global commodity trades.
It’s a constant challenge because ships engaged in illegal activities often turn off their AIS transponders or manipulate the locations they broadcast, as do those engaged in illegal fishing, smuggling or using forced labour. There are also large blind spots especially in coastal waters where satellite reception is poor and AIS data is sometimes restricted by national governments.
In simple terms, Windward is a software company that helps all the stakeholders in maritime traffic to make better decisions on risk and revenue. It can, for example, tell customers – in real time – where a shipping container is, and when/ if it is going to arrive. The ETA comes courtesy of a deep learning model that can take account of the movement of a container from one ship and port to another, whatever the location, weather, cargo or nationality of the vessel or cargo or water depth at ports. It tracks 2.2mn ships daily with 15 data-driven models using 20 data sources. It now has some 200 customers across all sectors.
The financials show the progress to profitability which Windward is expected to reach in 2025 – 15 years after launch. While it is growing revenue share from private companies and from outside the US, it is also clear that the path to profit has been slowed by the level of investment in tech. Windward been incurring net R&D costs of more than $10mn annually.
| Windward $mn SnapShot | 2025* | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
| Revenue | 43.5 | 36.2 | 28.3 | 21.6 | |
| Govt | 69% | 70% | 74% | ||
| Private | 31% | 30% | 26% | ||
| Europe | 34% | 37% | 40% | ||
| US | 39% | 32% | 30% | ||
| RoW | 27% | 31% | 30% | ||
| EBITDA | 0.4 | (1.8) | (5.0) | (12.1) | |
| Headcount | 170 | 170 | 150 | ||
But that tech investment (equivalent to some 25-30% of total costs) and also the 20-31% revenue growth rates might also reflect the rising competition including from the Lloyd’s List publisher acquired by private equity for £385mn in 2022. After its long history as a reference “list” of ship locations for the Lloyd’s of London insurance market, Lloyd’s List Intelligence is now a very digital information service and part of a growing band of companies seeking to make maritime traffic “visible”.
Its AIS+ – announced last month – claims to be tracking 100% of the global commercial fleet (60,000+ ships) and 12,000 ports. The service launch followed its Seasearcher Trade Risk, to provide cargo screening for financial professionals, and the renewal of its relationship with 250 Lloyd’s agents which – in earlier times – had helped to provide the once unique tabulation of shipping movements.
Other competitors in varying stages of applying AI to tracking world shipping include: S&P Global’s Maritime and Trade subsidiary, in the US, which also offers “real-time ship monitoring and intelligence” and the 10-year-old France-based Kpler’s “ship tracking predictive analytics”.
These and other data providers have applied their own tech to the AIS ship tracking that was supposed to solve the invisibility of the oceans, but didn’t immediately succeed in doing so. It emphasises the way that (just as in other areas of information and journalism) AI serves to commoditise some content and requires inventors like Windward (somehow) to combine continuous innovation with profitability.
While the global maritime industry seemingly has room for multiple players, the ultimate prize may be to become – you guessed it – the Bloomberg of the seas – and also to integrate its services with the tech used in logistics and supply chain management.
While Windward has the potential to grow into a comprehensive Bloomberg-like intelligence platform, its success will depend on never-ending innovation and adaptability. That’s easier said than done for a listed business hoping to make its first profit four years after IPO.
It might be time for some transformational M&A.
It is tempting to speculate on the potential of a ‘merger’ of Windward with Lloyd’s List Intelligence. A marriage of the tech-focused, new-wave innovator and the legendary brand in maritime intelligence would bring the Lloyd’s traditional strength in commercial shipping together with the knowledge and expertise of security and law enforcement that remains Windward’s unrivalled strength.
The combination could be a pace-setting, cash generative world-class business with $130mn of revenue and $35mn EBITDA in 2025. It would be just the start of an integrated intelligence service spanning shipping, logistics and freight. A follow-on deal with S&P’s Maritime & Trade portfolio might create an unassailable global leader. An agenda for 2025?
