The Global Media Business Weekly

Future has a tough first-half but…

The UK-based Future Plc today (16 May) reported first-half revenues 3% down at £378.4mn (HY 2024: £391.5mn), with a 1% organic decline, combined with adverse foreign exchange and previously announced business closures. The company said its organic growth in the first quarter had been offset by uncertain conditions in March (tariffs etc) which had impacted US advertising. EBITDA was 4% down to £109.8mn.

The results, which might underline the need for a more radical strategy by new CEO Kevin Li Ying, showed that its digital revenue decline was offset by some growth in print magazine advertising (yes). That may have been reversed in April. But revenue from the largest business (the cost savings website GoCompare) actually declined 1% after several years of uninterrupted growth, although its non-car insurance (one-third of the business) grew by 10%. B2B media – which had been up for sale previously – also posted a 13% decline. Operating profit margin was flat at 27% and the company returned some £43mn to shareholders. Net debt is just £241mn and capex is 2% of revenue.

Almost 70% of the Future revenue is generated by its B2C in print and digital. The recovery in eCommerce affiliate revenue is striking:

 Future B2C
H1 revenue
£mn
20252024Variance
US digital ads48.852.6(7)%
UK digital ads22.527.8(19)%
Digital ads total71.380.4(11)%
eCommerce44.541.7+7%
Other Media12.812.8flat
MEDIA total128.6134.9(5)%
Subscriptions60.963.9(5)%
Ads + other66.564.6+3%
MAGS total127.4128.5(1)%
B2C REV total256.0263.4(3)%

It’s a tough debut for the new, tech-smart CEO and his company, now with an enterprise value of some £1bn. But the cash generative group still has plenty of options to carve a new path and, perhaps, rationalise its portfolio. Investors, who have been watching the successful rehabilitation of Future’s transatlantic peer DotdashMeredith, are waiting for the equivalent rebound.

The CEO told Flashes & Flames today he was proud of the performance of his UK magazines subscriptions (even though they declined in H1) and of the women’s & fashion (mostly print) and entertainment (mostly digital) verticals and of The Week Junior. He reckoned the results were “a resilient performance in what remains a challenging macroeconomic environment”. His tone implied a determination to crank up the systems, workflows and efficiency and to keep making bolt-on acquisitions (£3.5mn spent during H1), implying no near-term prospect of any kind of transformational deal. But the company does have £650mn of debt facilities available just in case…

In spite of our own view that Future should somehow exchange the high-value but (surely) non-core GoCompare for a digital game-changing business, investors are mostly supportive of the status quo. Some even point out that DotdashMeredith (traditionally less print-centric than Future) itself retains a substantial print portfolio as part of its recovering core business. London broker Peel Hunt applauded the share buybacks and the maintained profit margins but described the Future results as “A disappointing update given the more resilient performance of US peers… but much of the caution looks priced in”.

One seemingly minor development that might become an important part of the Future strategy was almost buried in the latest financials: “We launched T3 Germany, using AI and limited human input. This uses existing content – so no incremental cost – and creates additional revenue monetised programmatically.  The plan is for this initiative to be the first of many: the platform effect is ready to deliver yet again through more brands, more languages.” One to watch.

Li Ying reiterated that magazines are an important part of the business. But we might still expect some more radical ideas from Future’s new CEO when he reports at the year-end. After all, it’s scarcely two months since he succeeded Jon Steinberg.

New CEO Kevin Li Ying: a new plan coming – eventually?
SnapShot Future Plc
 Yr to Sept  2025* 2024 2023 2022
Digital ads235253246263
Print230260274290
GoCo215205158146
eCommerce  70  74110127
Total rev750788789825
EBITDA215239277294
Margin29%30%35%36%
*Flashes & Flames estimate